Picture of Lexy Gavin-Mather

Lexy Gavin-Mather

YOUR POKER SUCCESS COACH

The Ups and Downs: A Guide to Variance in Poker

If you’ve ever found yourself frustrated by unpredictable results despite solid play, understanding variance is key to keeping your sanity and improving your game. So, let’s dive into what variance means in poker, whether you’re grinding cash games or looking to cash in
tournaments.

poker accelerator

What is Variance?

Variance measures how often a person wins or loses based on luck. If you flip a coin 10 times, you can expect to win five times. This would be the breakeven point. 

If you win six times, then you have positive variance. If you lose six times, you have negative variance.

 

Simple, right? 

Variance in Tournaments vs. Cash Games

The variance in tournaments is a whole different beast compared to cash games. In tournaments, the blinds and antes keep going up, which shrinks your effective stack and cranks up the variance. This fast-paced change means you have to adapt quickly, or you’ll be out.

As a general rule, a solid, winning poker player will “cash” aka “make the money” about 15%-20% of the time. That means there is a 75%-80% chance of losing! It is perfectly normal to go a few months (sometimes even a year) without making a profit from tournaments, even if you are a winning player.

On the flip side, cash games have steady blinds and antes, leading to more consistent win rates for skilled players. This consistency means you can expect a steadier income stream, unlike the rollercoaster swings of tournament play.

A solid, winning player can win approximately 60-75% of their sessions.

Payouts & Player Expectations

So, why would anyone play a tournament where losing is more likely than in a cash game?

Tournaments offer top-heavy payouts, rewarding deep runs despite lower cash rates overall.

For example, a $500 buy-in tournament at the World Series pays about 15% of the field, meaning only 15% of people will even cash. First place is usually somewhere between 10%-15% of the total prize pool. So let’s say the total prize pool for a $500 buy-in tournament is $500,000. If you win the tournament, you can expect to take home between $50,000 and $75,000.

On the other hand, cash games offer more predictable earnings based on hourly win rates relative to the stakes played.

For example, in a cash game, a good player can win about 10 times the big blind per hour. So, if you’re playing $1/$2 no limit hold’em, you can expect to win about $20 per hour (because 10x the $2 big blind = $20).

 


poker accelerator

Managing variance in poker is all about blending mental toughness with smart strategies. Here are a few tips to help you handle the ups and downs:

  • Embrace the Swings: Understand that variance is just part of the game. Use those downswings as chances to improve your skills and strengthen your mental game.
  • Adapt Your Play: Adjust your strategies depending on whether you’re playing cash games or tournaments. Tournaments require you to be ready for faster-paced action and higher risks.
  • Multi-Table Advantage: If you’re playing online, multi-tabling can help balance out variance. By playing multiple tables, you reduce the impact of short-term swings and reach your long-term average more quickly.


poker accelerator

RELATED POSTS

Join Lexy’s Poker Community for Free!

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR NEWSLETTERS

Sign up to receive expert poker tips, special offers, and the latest training resources to keep you ahead in every hand.
Each option conveys value while encouraging engagement with the newsletter

Sign up to receive expert poker tips, special offers, and the latest training resources to keep you ahead in every hand.
Each option conveys value while encouraging engagement with the newsletter